Iran could retaliate against a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by directing its Houthi allies to disrupt another critical global shipping route, a senior Middle East analyst warned Sunday.
The Bab al-Mandeb — a narrow chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — carries roughly 12% of global oil shipments and serves as a vital trade corridor between Asia and Europe, making it a strategic target for escalation that could further strain global energy markets.
“If the U.S. proceeds with its plan to blockade the strait, Iran’s escalation strategy could dictate that it ensures Gulf countries can’t export, either,” Mona Yacoubian, director and senior adviser at the Middle East Program, told Fox News Digital.
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“This could translate to further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure or even deploying the Houthis to blockade the Bab al-Mandeb,” Yacoubian added.
Yacoubian’s remarks came after Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser on international affairs to Iran’s Supreme Leader, signaled Tehran’s view of the Bab al-Mandeb in light of potential U.S. action to block the Strait of Hormuz.
“Today, the unified command of the Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz,” he said in a post on X.
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“If the White House dares to repeat its foolish mistakes, it will soon realize that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move.”
U.S. Central Command released a statement Sunday saying the naval blockade would begin Monday and be “enforced against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.”
President Donald Trump also said the U.S. Navy would block “any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz” in a post on Truth Social.
In March, the U.S. warned ships at the Red Sea chokepoint of Houthi attacks
“The Houthis continue to pose a threat to U.S. assets, including commercial vessels, in this region,” a maritime advisory said of the Iran-backed armed group that controls much of northern Yemen.
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“Potential hostile actions include one-way unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks; unmanned surface vehicle (USV) attacks; unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) attacks; ballistic and cruise missile attacks; small arms fire from small boats; explosive boat attacks; and illegal boardings, detentions, and/or seizures,” it said.
“U.S.-flagged commercial vessels operating in these areas are strongly advised to turn off their AIS transponders,” the advisory stated.
Yacoubian also determined in a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report that Iran was threatening to expand the conflict further to the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb compounding global market disruptions.
“It could leverage the Houthis, its Yemeni proxy, to once again wage attacks on the strategic waterway, depriving Saudi Arabia of its key workaround for oil shipments given the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz,” she added.
The Houthis joined Iran’s war against the U.S. and Israel on March 28 when the organization launched two ballistic missiles at southern Israel. Both were intercepted.
